Thursday 20 June 2019

Drone diplomacy in a local Hippocratic democracy

The so call Weather war going in the new phase. This time we have to see some new technics.
This technics come in the time when US President try to stay out of a fight in the Congress and Senate, where some groups try to move US close to the war against IRI and them allies.
In this groups exist some army groups who try to dominate over policy in the States. But they haven't "ayes and ears" in IRI.
In this condition they have so call lost moves in the area near IRI borders, specially in the trace of Hormuz, where they have several objects whose actively  monitored onto IRI Navy and some part of IRCG.
The reason stay in possibility that they would come in action against free pass to the ships and against US Navy by anti-craft bombs. 
On other side stay monitoring on the monitor, where nobody say what they have in the monitor.
But after today, and shot down the US drone, we now that any move in the check played in version "Persian gambit" going to do nothing positive to both sides, but nor for local acter, so call Gulf Council, where is clear how Kuwait stay "neutral", and Qatar,too. What they predict to do in the future combat between two side, it is not so clear. SA involve in the conflict do not have some reasonable expect to make change at the battlefield. These reasons stay in situation with local army at the south front, where they lost several divisions, and daily have have casualties from Yemen.
A crisis should open new fronts,in the SA main field at south-east, where up-rise of Shiia could grow in the long turn civil war, where no one can predict how it would be finish.
Without "safe" backyard and with no more secure so call ally in the Central Asia, the Stats Navy and special forces have no intention to coming first in the battles for "democracy".
Action made several mounts before in the some European ally states, open very hard and paint wound for US strategic force.
In the "war games" around Europe, they find how they have not be secure in the allies, and how they could not come with them in the first front line.  It mean that war can start with so heavy price to the force, and how it we coming to have like new mix between Afghanistan and Vietnam.
In air the power is in USAF, and it is be clear to today. Now, it isn't so.
For long time we had believed how US could not going in the very expensive war, where final price could be "Yugoslavia scenario". 
In long time fight, we not so and never was doubt like both Russia and China come to make final comedown to the US, but what they have in the plans, is not so clear.
US Navy and 2,5 thousand USMC at the board going to make nothing seriously. Mostly they coming to make trouble with incursion in Baluchistan province, and do some action with militant ally. On other side it coming very unpleasant for official Islamabad, who want very hard, to stay out of any war in the region.
India is not so clear what they going to do if Pakistan forces stay in the playground. Only what we now is Moscow pressure on the Agha Chan and Pakistani elite to move a fingers from the table. Even local strategic partner, SA, demand from them to be actively against IRI.
US position in the Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, now is free to say, look like WC. It is in time when Russia build stronger Caspian fleet, and make hard presence in the neighborhood.
In the fight between three groups in the US policy, and in clear decide from President to going into new therm, a war against IRI would be possible only if the strategic force find some a serious ally who will be able to give more human lives for small amount.
Situation in the LA find how it come disasters for that ally, after they lost "power" for three consecutive days.
In final we want to see what in the US have power, and who can move them in the bring of sword.